Category Archives: Crony Capitalism

04.24.13
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Marketwatch: Modified mortgages show ‘alarming’ default trend

Troubled homeowners who received modified mortgages through a federal program are seeing high default rates, a troubling trend that officials inadequately understand, according to an investigator’s report released Wednesday.

The oldest permanent modifications made through the federal Home Affordable Modification Program, which launched in 2009, were redefaulting at a rate of 46.1% as of March 31, according to the report from the special inspector general overseeing the Treasury Department’s efforts to shore up the U.S. financial system. HAMP’s permanent modifications from 2010 have redefault rates ranging from 28.9% to 37.6%.

“The number of homeowners who have redefaulted on a HAMP permanent mortgage modification is increasing at an alarming rate,” the report said. “Treasury’s data shows that the longer a homeowner remains in HAMP, the more likely he or she is to redefault out of the program.”

Unfortunately, Treasury officials have an insufficient understanding of factors behind failures, according to the report.

“Better knowledge of the characteristics of the loan, the homeowners, the servicer, or the modification, more prone to redefault will increase Treasury’s understanding of the underlying problems that cause redefaults and provide Treasury an opportunity to address these issues proactively,” the inspector general said.

HAMP mortgages are modified to lower monthly payments by cutting interest rates and extending terms, among other actions. Servicers and borrowers receive incentive payments through the program.

Unsuccessful modifications have a “devastating effect,” according to the report.

“Redefaulted HAMP modifications on already struggling homeowners when any amounts previously modified suddenly come due,” according to the report. “When the homeowner cannot pay it, they lose their home to foreclosure.”

When Treasury launched HAMP, officials said the program could help 3 million to 4 million at-risk homeowners avoid foreclosure. However, as of March 31, only about 2 million HAMP modifications had been started, and 54% of these have been cancelled, according to the report.

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Click below for the full article.

http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2013/04/24/modified-mortgages-show-alarming-default-trend/

04.23.13
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Marketwatch: The slowdown is more than a soft patch, Goldman Sachs got it wrong before they got it right

For months, economists and the media have proclaimed that we are in full-recovery mode. While the markets were at record highs, unemployment had not improved, economic growth was stagnant and most corporate earnings had little to do with an increase in sales and revenue and were based on moves like laying-off thousands of people and shedding non-performing assets.

Last week, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. — one of those bullish outfits projecting enthusiasm — reversed its earlier upbeat message, saying that consumer spending is slowing down, which will likely have a negative impact on future growth. The significance is that most analysts and economists are coming to grips with the fact that the economic data doesn’t support stock-market valuations at these levels.

What economists and analysts failed to connect is the contrast between reality and the stock market — the low consumer spending, paltry economic growth, weak hiring by companies and reckless quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve while the stock market soared.

So, let’s look at everything Goldman Sachs (and many others) missed, and the chain of economic events.

The importance of consumption on the overall economy should not be overlooked. While in the economic cycle, it is production that comes first, as it provides the income necessary for individuals to consume, it is ultimately consumption that completes the cycle by creating the demand.

Despite repeated bailouts, programs, and interventions, economic growth remains mired at sub-par rates as consumers struggle in a low growth/high unemployment economy. Businesses, which have been pressured by poor sales, higher taxes and increased government regulations, have learned to do more with less. Higher productivity has led to less employment and higher levels of profits.

The dark side of that equation is that less employment means higher competition for jobs which suppresses wage growth. Lower wage growth and incomes means less consumption, which reduces the aggregate end demand. In turn, lower demand for products and services puts businesses on the defensive to “do more with less” in order to protect profit margins. Wash, rinse and repeat. This is why deflationary economic environments are so greatly feared by the Fed as that relationship between production and consumption is incredibly difficult to break.

I don’t believe that the current slowdown is just a “soft patch,” but is instead the end of the expansionary cycle that began in 2009. That belief is simply based on the fact that economies do not grow indefinitely but cycle between expansions and contractions.

In the current economic environment, where the consumer is caught in a balance sheet deleveraging cycle, economic contractions occur more frequently than they do under more normal economic conditions. This is not an indictment of fiscal or monetary policies, but simply a statement about the cycles of an economy.

So where does that leave us now and the remainder of 2013?

At some point, despite the ongoing interventions by the Federal Reserve, the stock market will revert to the underlying fundamental story which has been slowly deteriorating over time. The question that remains to be answered is simply how long can the Fed’s artificial intervention programs continue to elevate asset prices?

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Click below for the full article.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-current-slowdown-is-more-than-a-soft-patch-2013-04-23?siteid=yhoof2

04.21.13
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Motley Fool: Will Obama Really Confiscate Your Retirement Savings?

The budget proposal President Obama recently submitted had several provisions designed to increase government tax revenue. But one provision concerning retirement accounts triggered alarm bells for many Americans, raising fears that the government will confiscate your retirement savings.

Why people think confiscation is possible The provision in the Obama budget calls for tax laws to “prohibit individuals from accumulating over $3 million in tax-preferred retirement accounts.” Specifically, the budget refers to a complicated formula that involves figuring out how much money a person would need in order to buy an annuity contract that would guarantee annual payments to retirees of $205,000 for the rest of their lives. The proposal would raise $9 billion over the next 10 years, according to the budget’s forecast.

Immediately, many analysts jumped to the conclusion that the provision might involve actually taking away money from retirement accounts. CNBC’s Larry Kudlow described the measure in a special editorial in the New York Sun as an “incredible and arbitrary limit or tax on — or even possible confiscation of — IRA-type tax-advantaged savings account [emphasis added].”

Past confiscation fears Constitutionally, the idea that the government could simply confiscate your retirement savings without compensation goes directly against the due process and takings clauses of the Fifth Amendment. More skeptical analysts will note that retirement accounts make up trillions of dollars in assets that major banks Bank of America (NYSE: BAC  )  and Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC  )  and many other major financial institutions use to drive profits, giving them a huge incentive to use their political power to ensure that those assets don’t disappear instantaneously.

Yet this isn’t the first time that the issue of confiscation has come up. Even before President Obama was elected, Congress looked at a proposal to replace 401(k) plans with government-managed retirement accounts. Under the plan from Prof. Teresa Ghilarducci of the New School’s Schwartz Center for Economic Policy Analysis, these accounts would have had savers contributing 5% of their pay to a government-run retirement plan that would invest in bonds paying a fixed, guaranteed return over the rate of inflation. Ghilarducci’s plan did not propose confiscation, and as she described in an interview with Seattle talk show host Kirby Wilbur at the time, “Whatever you have in your 401(k) now will keep its tax break.”

Moreover, historians point to the 1933 executive order that required individuals to deliver gold coins, bullion, and certificates to banks in exchange for regular currency at a rate of $20.67 per ounce as being functionally equivalent to confiscation. With the government proceeding to devalue the dollar to $35 per gold ounce the following year, those who complied with the order suffered a substantial loss of purchasing power. Indeed, many gold investors use that same argument in arguing against bullion ETFs SPDR Gold Trust (NYSEMKT: GLD  ) , iShares Gold (NYSEMKT: IAU  ) , and iShares Silver Trust (NYSEMKT: SLV  ) , preferring instead to take physical possession of their gold and silver to ensure its safekeeping themselves.

Click below for the full article.
04.21.13
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Motley Fool: Gold Fell to $1,400? Welcome to the New Gold Rush!

With everyone talking about how the great gold boom is over, that with the price of gold tumbling to $1,400 an ounce the back of the yellow metal as a safe-haven investment  has been broken, you might be surprised to learn there’s actually a new gold rush going on. With every drop in the price of gold (and silver, too), individuals are buying as much of the precious metal as they can.

According to the former assistant secretary of the Treasury under President Reagan, Dr. Paul Craig Roberts, the price collapse was an orchestrated attack on gold and silver coordinated by the Federal Reserve. The assault saw prices plunge an unprecedented 10% in one day at one point.  SPDR Gold Shares  (NYSEMKT: GLD  )  is now 12% lower from where it started April, while the iShares Silver Trust  (NYSEMKT: SLV  )  is down 18%.

For the tinfoil hat brigade, the collapse, coming as it did just days after President Obama met with the heads of Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, and Bank of America, was enough of a nexus to indicate that this was a response to the threats posed by gold (and even Bitcoin) to the Federal Reserve system.

Gold Price in US Dollars Chart

Gold Price in US Dollars data by YCharts, Shaded area represents U.S. recession.

While I’m not sure I buy into conspiracy theories like that, I do know that if it’s true, then the Law of Unintended Consequences must surely be at play. There’s anecdotal evidence everywhere that despite the dumping of tons of paper gold assets on the market, demand for physical gold and silver has never been greater.

The new gold rush Bullion dealers are reporting they’re seeing individual purchases every bit as strong as occurred back in 2008. My bullion and coin dealer, JM Bullion, has upwards of a three-week delay in shipping American Silver Eagles, yet dealers everywhere are finding it increasingly difficult to get supply. Buyers from India to China are also racing to scoop up gold, with the China Gold Association reporting retail sales tripling in the country between April 15 and April 16, while Hong Kong and Macau have reported volume surges of as much as 150%.

Click below for the full article.

http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2013/04/21/gold-fell-to-1400-welcome-to-the-new-gold-rush.aspx

04.19.13
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The Motley Fool: Obamacare and Sequestration Crush UnitedHealth

In this video, health-care analyst David Williamson discusses how Obamacare and sequestration are weighing on shares of insurer UnitedHealth (NYSE: UNH) . David breaks the managed care company’s quarter into Clint Eastwood-inspired good, bad, and ugly segments, helping investors in UnitedHealth, and related stocks, to find out everything they need to know from this bellwether’s earnings, and what to expect going forward.

When President Obama was re-elected, shares of UnitedHealth and other health insurers fell immediately. Is Obamacare a death knell for health insurers, or is the market missing out on some of the opportunities the law presents? In this brand new premium report on UnitedHealth, The Motley Fool takes a long term view, honing in on prospects for UnitedHealth in a post-Obamacare world. So don’t miss out — simply click here now to claim your copy today.


Click below for the full article.

http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2013/04/19/obamacare-and-sequestration-crush-unitedhealth.aspx

04.18.13
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Business Insider: Here’s What We Know About The Sad State Of Wall Street Now That Earnings Are All In

In the last week or so every Wall Street bank has reported its earnings, so now  it’s time for the takeaways.

As usual the headlines of the week didn’t tell the whole story.

A quick glance looks like this: JP  Morgan beat estimates with a 33%  jump in profits, Morgan  Stanley‘s profits dipped but the bank still  beat expectations, Goldman  Sachs is taking champagne  showers, Bank  of America is eeking  out some kind of improvement, and Citi  is finally coming into its own after shedding a load of toxic assets.

Now for the news you can read between the lines.

Sales and trading is on life support, especially if you trade fixed income,  currencies or commodities. The traders at Goldman Sachs did better than everyone  else, but as CNBC’s  John Carney pointed out, they were still down 7% for the quarter.

Bank of America’s S&T revenue fell 20% (run by Tom Montag, who still gets  paid more than BofA CEO Brian  Moynihan) and Morgan Stanley got killed, with its revenue falling 42%.

On the other hand, Wealth Management, once one of the most boring sectors on  The Street, is carrying banks. This is especially true at Morgan Stanley (where  the unit is up 48% from this time last year) and Bank of America, where  assets under management grew $67.7  billion year-over-year to $745.3 billion.

Another business where Wall Street is making some cash is in debt  underwriting. Thanks to our current low yield environment, companies that were  unable to issue bonds before can do so now. The demand to buy these bonds is  there from clients searching for yield any way they can get it. Wall Street is here to help.

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Click below for the full article.

http://www.businessinsider.com/wall-street-banks-q1-2013-earnings-2013-4

04.18.13
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Associated Press: UnitedHealth warns of Medicare profit squeeze

UnitedHealth Group, the largest provider of Medicare Advantage plans, warned Thursday that funding cuts for the privately-run versions of the federal Medicare program will force it to reconsider its expectations for earnings growth next year.

CEO Stephen Hemsley told analysts that the government-subsidized coverage for elderly and disabled people faces a reimbursement cut of about 4 percent next year. That’s on top of other possible federal funding reductions and an expected 3 percent rise in medical costs.

“We did not expect the fastest-growing, most popular and most effective of the Medicare benefit options serving America’s seniors would be underfunded to this extent in 2014,” Hemsley said.

More than 13 million people were enrolled in Medicare Advantage plans last year, or about 27 percent of the Medicare population, according to the nonprofit Kaiser Family Foundation.

Insurers offer hundreds of different Medicare Advantage plans around the country. The coverage typically provides extras such as dental and vision care, or rates that are lower than standard Medicare.

UnitedHealth, which is the nation’s largest health insurer, has nearly 2.9 million people enrolled, and the plans brought in about 20 percent of the insurer’s revenue last year.

Shares of UnitedHealth and other insurers that provide Medicare Advantage coverage slid in February after the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services released data that pointed to payment cuts as steep as 8 percent next year. The government then softened the blow to a reduction of about 4 percent.

But UnitedHealth said that cut, combined with the other reductions, will be tough to stomach. UnitedHealth said it may have to trim benefits, change provider networks or leave some markets to preserve Medicare Advantage profitability.

Hemsley, UnitedHealth’s CEO, called the reimbursement cut “a significantly greater rate setback than anyone could have expected.”

The company also said widespread government spending cuts that started earlier this year and hit Medicare will make it hard for the insurer to reach the top end of its forecast for 2013 earnings of $5.25 to $5.50 per share. Analysts expect earnings of $5.51 per share, according to FactSet, a research firm.

Analysts had labeled UnitedHealth’s 2013 earnings forecast conservative after it came out last fall, and the insurer normally raises it several times through the year. But so far, the company has just backed the initial projection.

Thursday’s outlook warning came as UnitedHealth reported that its first-quarter earnings sank 14 percent, largely due to a lower gain the company recorded due to leftover insurance claims.

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Click below for the full article.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/unitedhealth-warns-medicare-profit-squeeze-175814694–finance.html

 

04.18.13
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Motoramic: Why does the world’s largest automaker need $146.5 million from Kentucky?

On Friday, Toyota Chief Executive Akio Toyoda and Kentucky officials are expected to announce a $530 million expansion of Toyota’s sprawling Georgetown factory in the Bluegrass State so that it can build 50,000 Lexus ES sedans a year. In return for adding 570 permanent jobs, Kentucky will give Toyota a package of tax breaks and other incentives worth $146.5 million. Such deals are so common they rarely draw comment, but it’s worth asking: Why does the world’s largest automaker need a handout?

To get the incentives, Toyota promised to hire up to 570 new full-time workers at the Georgetown plant, along with 180 temporary workers. As the Louisville Courier-Journal reports, those permanent employees will be paid an average of $26 an hour in wages and benefits, a bit more than half of what long-time employees in Georgetown make.

It would be unfair to Toyota to single it out for taking a path trod so often by other automakers and corporations; in fact, it’s unheard of for an automaker from General Motors to Mitsubishi to expand a plant without some kind of government gift. Last December, The New York Times counted up 35 different grants to Ford from Kentucky alone between 2007 and 2010, totaling $307 million — which came even as the company cut jobs.

And those breaks pale to the deals automakers bargain for when they open new plants, with the current record held by Volkswagen, whose Tennessee factory came with incentives that total $577 million over several years. In return for those incentives, VW vowed to hire 2,000 full-time workers, for a cost of about $288,500 per job, a ratio that was the highest ever for a new auto assembly plant in the United States. When Kia opened its plant in Georgia in 2009, it did so only after driving a hard bargain for a $400 million incentive package, including everything from school property tax breaks to a free rail spur to ship cars from the factory.

State and local governments give automakers endless breaks for several reasons. A new auto plant often means additional jobs from parts suppliers on top of the add-on boost to the local economy. In tough times for American workers, automotive manufacturing jobs ofter stability and wages well above what’s available in most service industry careers. And many state officials fear being held to answer why a project was lost if the pot wasn’t sweet enough.

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How do you feel about this government intervention?  Click below for the full article.

http://autos.yahoo.com/blogs/motoramic/why-does-world-largest-automaker-146-million-kentucky-164424807.html

04.18.13
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New York Times: Mortgage Relief Checks Go Out, Only to Bounce

A $300 relief check that bounced. The name and other information was redacted by The New York Times for privacy reasons.

When the bank account is running dry and the mortgage payment is coming due, the phrase “insufficient funds” is the last thing you want to hear.

Now imagine hearing those two words when trying to cash a long-awaited check from the same bank that foreclosed on you.

Many struggling homeowners got exactly that this week when they lined up to take their cut of a $3.6 billion settlement with the nation’s largest banks — lenders accused of wrongful evictions and other abuses.

Ronnie Edward, whose home was sold in a foreclosure auction, waited three years for his $3,000 check. When it arrived on Tuesday, he raced to his local bank in Tennessee, only to learn that the funds “were not available.”

Mr. Edward, 38, was taken aback. “Is this for real?” he asked.

It is unclear how many of the 1.4 million homeowners who were mailed the first round of payments covered under the foreclosure settlement have had problems with their checks. But housing advocates from California to New York and even regulators say that in recent days frustrated homeowners have bombarded them with complaints and questions.

The mishap is just the latest setback to troubled homeowners. It took more than two years to resolve a federal investigation into the foreclosure abuses. Even after the settlement in January, the checks were delayed for weeks.

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The Too Big to Fail Banks certainly didn’t seem to have trouble getting their checks from Hank Paulson or Ben Bernanke but it looks like these folks weren’t so fortunate.  Click below for the full article.

http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2013/04/17/victims-of-foreclosure-abuses-face-another-woe-bounced-checks/

 

04.17.13
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The News Tribune Reports…. Goldman CFO: Still ‘very close’ to crisis

Goldman Sachs reported what seemed like a good first quarter, but analysts were more concerned about the bank’s future than the past three months. They peppered the chief financial officer with questions about impending regulations, and investors sent Goldman’s stock down even as other banks rose.

By the numbers, it was a decent quarter. Profit rose 5 percent and revenue was up 1 percent. Both beat analysts’ expectations. Bond underwriting soared 69 percent as issuers rushed to take advantage of low interest rates and a hearty appetite for corporate debt among investors. CEO Lloyd Blankfein described the results as “generally solid.”

Goldman’s leaders sounded a cautious tone on a conference call with analysts, however. They said investors were still nervous about the economy and that the bank would continue to focus on controlling costs.

Click below for the full article.