Category Archives: Investing

08.04.13
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Forbes: Bernanke Tells Congress: I Don’t Really Understand Gold

While Ron Paul is no longer part of  the Congressional committees that grill Ben Bernanke twice a year, the Fed Chairman was forced to answer questions about gold on Thursday again.  Asked about the falling price of gold, which is down nearly 25% this year, Bernanke admitted he doesn’t understand the yellow metal.

“No one really understands gold prices,” Bernanke told the Senate Banking Committee, adding he doesn’t get it either.

Gold prices, which have been under intense pressure since at least last September, were actually up on the day, gaining 0.5% to $1,284.20 an ounce by 12:47 PM in New York.

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Click below for the full article.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/afontevecchia/2013/07/18/bernanke-tells-congress-i-dont-understand-gold/

07.31.13
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OpenMarket.org: Detroit Bankruptcy Focuses Attention on Public Pensions

For people watching it from afar, the bankruptcy of Detroit — the biggest municipal bankruptcy in American history — may have brought a sense of relief in the fact that they live somewhere else. But it’s also brought needed public attention to the state of city finances around the nation. While Detroit is an egregious case of municipal incompetence, corruption, and mismanagement, its problems are not unique.

In fact, one of the drivers of debt that brought the Motor City to its knees is common among states and cities: defined benefit pension plans, which guarantee payments independently of the level of the plan’s funding. This week’s cover story in The Economist brings some needed attention to the problem:

Most public-sector workers can expect a pension linked to their final salary. Only 20% of private-sector workers benefit from such a promise. Companies have almost entirely stopped offering such benefits, because they have proved too expensive. In the public sector, however, the full cost of final-salary pensions has been disguised by iffy accounting.

Pension accounting is complicated. What is the cost today of a promise to pay a benefit in 2020 or 2030? The states have been allowed to discount that future liability at an annual rate of 7.5%-8% on the assumption that they can earn such returns on their investment portfolios. The higher the discount rate, the lower the liability appears to be and the less the states have to contribute upfront.

Even when this dubious approach is used, the Centre for Retirement Research (CRR) at Boston College reckons that states’ pensions are 27% underfunded. That adds up to a shortfall of $1 trillion. What is more, they are paying only about four-fifths of their required annual contribution.

On a more realistic discount rate of 5%, the CRR reckons the shortfall may be $2.7 trillion. A similar calculation by Moody’s, a ratings agency, reckons that schemes are 52% underfunded.

This is a huge problem. But to effectively address it requires knowing how big it actually is. That is easier said than done, given that much of the underfunding is the result of fuzzy math that has resulted in discount rates based on overly optimistic investment return projections.

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Click below for the full article.

http://www.openmarket.org/2013/07/31/detroit-bankruptcy-focuses-attention-on-public-pensions/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+Openmarketorg+%28OpenMarket.org%29

07.29.13
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The Daily Beast: Paul Krugman’s Nasty and Inane Attack on ‘Libertarian Populism’

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It’s got to be a pretty good gig to be Paul Krugman. He’s rich enough to bitch to The New Yorker about not being able to afford a home in St. John so, sigh, St. Croix has to do. He’s got tenure at the second-best college in New Jersey, an equally secure gig at the second-best newspaper in New York, and he’s even copped a Nobel Prize (economics, but still). He’s asked for his opinion on pop bands in a way that I’m pretty sure Milton Friedman or John Kenneth Galbraith never experienced (thank god for small favors). “The New Pornographers are probably technically better than Arcade Fire,” he’s solemnly sworn to Playboy. “But what the hell? It’s all good.”

The man also known as Krugtron the Invincible is able to utter such fallacious conventional deep thoughts as “the Great Depression ended largely thanks to a guy named Adolf Hitler” and that the 9/11 attacks were just the ticket to goose the soft early-’00s economy in lower Manhattan (“All of a sudden, we need some new office buildings,” he actually wrote in the Times on September 14, 2001) and still be taken seriously. He’s repeatedly called for a a bogus alien invasion that occasions even more super-stimulative spending than we’ve seen already in this awful 21st century—an idea presumably lifted, unacknowledged, from the Watchmen comic books.

 

Best of all, Krugman has attained that rare level of eminence where he doesn’t even have to engage the very opponents he dismisses as beneath contempt. Like Kurtz in Heart of Darkness and Apocalypse Now, he just needs to wave his hand, mumble vague abjurations, and rest assured his devoted minions will finish his work for him.

 

Krugman’s latest target is “libertarian populism,” which he summarizes thus: “The idea here is that there exists a pool of disaffected working-class white voters who failed to turn out last year but can be mobilized again with the right kind of conservative economic program—and that this remobilization can restore the Republican Party’s electoral fortunes.”

 

This ain’t gonna happen, chuffs Krugman, because … because … because … Rep. Paul Ryan (R-Wis.)! Despite the fact that the former Republican vice-presidential nominee and marathon-time amnesiac is nobody’s idea of a libertarian or a populist, Krugman insists that libertarian populism is doomed precisely because  to “the extent that there was any substance to the Ryan [budget] plan, it mainly involved savage cuts in aid to the poor. And while many nonwhite Americans depend on these safety-net programs, so do many less-well-off whites—the very voters libertarian populism is supposed to reach.”

 

Had Colonel Krugman ventured outside his ideological compound, he might have happened upon the writings of Tim Carney of The Washington Examiner. To the extent that libertarian populism has a policy agenda, it’s mostly thanks to Carney, who likes to write books attacking right- and left-wing crony capitalists. He’s libertarian in that he consistently believes that freer markets function more fairly and more efficiently, and he generally thinks people should be left alone when it comes to economic and personal freedom (he’s not an absolutist on most things). He’s populist in that he is basically obsessed with what he sees as concentrations of power and wealth among elites who rig markets, status, and more against the little guy.

 

Unsurprisingly, Carney’s libertarian-populist policy agenda has precious little to do with starving poor people to death or stoking white working-class resentment against dusky hordes (Carney is pro-immigration). Unless by dusky hordes, you mean Wall Street banksters and well-tanned pols such as Speaker John Boehner.

 

For better or for worse, it’s filled with prescriptions such as “cut or eliminate the payroll tax” (that’s the one that hurts low-wage earners the most); “break up the big banks and/or place stricter safety and soundness rules on them” (hmm, how does that help the Rothschilds again?); and “end corporate welfare” (Carney specifically name-checks the awful Export-Import Bank and subsidies to Big Sugar, which both receive bipartisan congressional support).

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Click below for the full article.

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2013/07/19/paul-krugman-s-nasty-and-inane-attack-on-libertarian-populism.html

07.25.13
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Motley Fool: Bernanke’s QE Magic Trick

In May of this year, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke suggested to a congressional panel that the Fed could taper its policy of Quantitative Easing (QE). The obvious happened — the stock market took a quick hit, and interest rates spiked.

So Bernanke pulled a quick change, saying the Federal Reserve will continue an open-ended policy of QE, which artificially suppresses interest rates but immeasurably helps the housing, bond and stock markets. This was a calculated act to test the reaction of the markets.Their negative response validated what Bernanke already knew to be true, that the Fed is trapped in its magic policy of Quantitative Easing, and it’s going to be much harder to make it disappear than anticipated.

Bernanke will be exiting the Federal Reserve stage at the end of his term in January 2014, and returning to academia. I imagine he is glad to do so, leaving the possible tapering of QE to his successor. And, with only months left in his tenure as chairman of the Fed, it’s understandable that he would not want to show his hand and risk rocking the stock market.

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Click below for the full article.

http://beta.fool.com/oglove/2013/07/25/bernankes-qe-magic-trick/41523/?source=eogyholnk0000001

05.06.13
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Business 2 Community: U.S. Dollar to Become the Next Yen?

In its latest meeting minutes, the Federal Reserve said it will continue with quantitative easing, creating $85.0 billion in new money monthly, in order to bring economic growth to the U.S. economy. (Source: Federal Reserve, May 1, 2013.)

The Federal Reserve, once again, didn’t provide any clear indication as to when it will end the quantitative easing; rather, the central bank stated it will continue to do the same “until the outlook for the labor market has improved substantially in context of price stability.” (Source: Ibid.)

The Federal Reserve has already increased its balance sheet to over $3.0 trillion, and if it continues its quantitative easing at this pace, its balance sheet will balloon even more, possibly even reaching $4.0 trillion—or even $5.0 trillion—in a very short period of time.

This is troublesome news, dear reader. The more money created out of thin air via quantitative easing, the more the fundamentals of the reserve currency, the U.S. dollar, deteriorate.

As I have mentioned in these pages before, we only need to look at the Japanese economy to see quantitative easing is not a viable option for us.

The Japanese currency has plummeted since the Bank of Japan revved up its quantitative easing. Just look at the chart below of the Japanese yen compared to other major currencies in the global economy; it seems as if the currency has fallen off a cliff. If we keep up with all this money printing, the U.S. dollar may eventually look the same!

U.S. Dollar to Become the Next Yen? image xjy japanese yen philadelphia index1

Chart courtesy of www.StockCharts.com

A falling U.S. dollar will drag down the buying power of Americans even further, as they are already struggling to keep up with their expenses. What we could purchase for $1.00 in the year 2000 now costs us $1.35. (Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, last accessed May 3, 2013.)

I have yet to see any real economic growth in the U.S. economy as it was promised when quantitative easing was first introduced after the financial crisis. Quantitative easing is working to make big bank balance sheets strong and to create inflation, but I don’t see any economic growth being created by it.

I am looking at the Japanese economy as the best example of a country failing with long-term quantitative easing and what might be next for the U.S. economy and the dollar due to all this newly created money.

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Click below for the full article.

http://www.business2community.com/finance/u-s-dollar-to-become-the-next-yen-0486009

05.01.13
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Reuters: Fed holds steady on stimulus, worried by fiscal drag

Chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank Ben Bernanke attends the Treasury Department's Financial Stability Oversight Council in Washington April 25, 2013. REUTERS/Gary Cameron

The U.S. Federal Reserve said on Wednesday it will continue buying $85 billion in bonds each month to keep interest rates low and spur growth, and added it would step up purchases if needed to protect the economy.

Expressing concern about a drag from Washington’s belt-tightening, the Fed described the economy as expanding moderately in a statement that largely mirrored its last policy announcement in March. Fed officials cited continued improvement in labor market conditions and did not change their description of inflation, saying it should remain at or below the central bank’s 2 percent target.

But policymakers reiterated that unemployment is still too high and restated their intention to keep buying assets until the outlook for jobs improves substantially.

“Fiscal policy is restraining economic growth,” the U.S. central bank’s Federal Open Market Committee said in its policy statement at the close of its two-day meeting. “The Committee is prepared to increase or reduce the pace of its purchases to maintain appropriate policy accommodation.”

Some economists were surprised that the statement did not contain a clearer acknowledgement of a recent weakening in the economic numbers.

Until recently, analysts had expected the Fed to buy a total of $1 trillion in Treasury and mortgage-backed securities during its ongoing third round of quantitative easing, known as QE3, with expectations the Fed would start to take its foot off the accelerator in the second half of this year.

Now, things are looking a bit more shaky.

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Click below for the full article.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/05/01/us-usa-fed-idUSBRE94003X20130501

04.29.13
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Reuters: PRECIOUS-Gold rises 1 percent, holds near one-week high

Gold bars and granules are pictured at the Austrian Gold and Silver Separating Plant 'Oegussa' in Vienna October 23, 2012. REUTERS/Heinz-Peter Bader

Gold rose more than 1 percent on Monday and held near its highest in more than a week, as a rebound in prices from multi-year lows failed to damp investor appetite for the precious metal, causing a shortage in physical supply.

Recent bleak U.S. growth data that raised hopes the Federal Reserve would keep its current pace of bond buying at $85 billion a month also supported gold, widely seen as a hedge against inflation.

U.S. gold futures, which often provide trading cues to cash gold, hit a high of $1,472.20 an ounce. By 0553 GMT, prices stood at $1,468.90 an ounce, up $15.30. Spot gold rose $6.70 to $1,469.20 an ounce.

Both cash gold and futures sank to around $1,321 on April 16, their lowest in more than two years, after a drop below $1,500 sparked a sell-off that prompted investors to slash holdings of exchange-traded funds. They touched an 11-day peak above $1,484 on Friday.

“I don’t think gold is out of the woods yet, but there’s room for upward correction. One of the reasons why gold has dropped so much was the strong signs of U.S. economic recovery. Now, we don’t see much of it,” said Joyce Liu, an investment analyst at Phillip Futures in Singapore.

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Click below for the full article.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/04/29/markets-precious-idUSL3N0DG04220130429

 

04.26.13
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The Wall Street Journal: Are You Ready for the New Investment Tax?

It’s time to grapple with the new 3.8% tax on investment income.

The ordeal of 2012 taxes is barely over. But it isn’t too early to understand and cushion the blow of the investment-income levy, which Congress passed in 2010 to help fund the health-care overhaul.

The tax, which took effect Jan. 1, applies to the “net investment income” of married joint filers who have more than $250,000 of income (or $200,000 for singles). Only investment income—such as dividends, interest and capital gains—above the thresholds is taxed. The rate is a flat 3.8% in addition to other taxes owed.

“Affluent investors who ignore this tax will be in for a total shock next April 15,” says David Lifson, a certified public accountant specializing in tax at Crowe Horwath in New York. Such income is typically not subject to withholding, and people won’t be factoring it into their estimated taxes. Lower-bracket taxpayers who receive a windfall large enough to owe the tax will also be in for a surprise.

The new levy is one of several tax increases taking effect this year, including higher top rates on income and capital gains, limits on deductions, and an extra 0.9% payroll tax. But the 3.8% tax will cost many Americans even more.

The reason: an odd interaction between the regular income tax and the alternative minimum tax, or AMT, a separate levy that rescinds the value of some tax benefits. This year, many affluent taxpayers will have higher income because of new limits on exemptions and deductions. But this higher income will also help lower their alternative minimum tax.

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Click below for the full article.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324743704578444630080409450.html?KEYWORDS=Are+You+Ready+for+the+New+Investment+Tax

04.26.13
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US News: What Gen X Doesn’t Know About Social Security

Members of Generation X, those born between 1965 and 1976, are planning to collect Social Security at an average age of 65, according to a recent survey. But that could be a mistake. Gen Xers won’t qualify for the full Social Security payments they have earned until age 67. Those who sign up for Social Security at age 65 will get permanently lower payments for the rest of their lives.

The Social Security full retirement age at which you can claim the entire benefit you have earned is 67 for everyone born in 1960 or later. Gen Xers who sign up for Social Security at age 65, as 29 percent plan to do, will see their monthly payments reduced by about 13.3 percent.

A GfK Custom Research North America survey of 1,000 adults ages 36 to 47 commissioned by the MetLife Mature Market Institute found that 18 percent of Gen Xers plan to claim Social Security benefits as soon as they are eligible at age 62. But workers who sign up at this age will see their payments reduced by 30 percent. For example, a worker who would be eligible for $1,000 per month upon retirement at age 67 would get just $700 per month is he signs up for Social Security at age 62. Another 16 percent of people in their late 30s and early 40s simply don’t know when they will start receiving Social Security benefits.

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Click below for the full article.

http://money.usnews.com/money/blogs/planning-to-retire/2013/04/26/what-gen-x-doesnt-know-about-social-security